Open Forum Friday: Will Twilight Be One of the Biggest Blockbusters of the Year?
The next two weekends at the box office are shaping up to be a veritable battle of the sexes; first it is Quantum of Solace, the 22nd James Bond film and embodiment of all that is rugged and manly, and then next week Twilight hits theatres, a vampire romance that has women across the globe swooning. So which one will ultimately come out on top? Bond certainly has a big advantage, given the franchise’s massive built-in fanbase and well-established history, but there are a lot of signs indicating that Twilight could very well be a box office monster as well.
Take the recent Robert Pattinson autograph session that was supposed to happen in San Francisco earlier this week, that ended in a near riot. Clearly they’ve got the teenage girl audience wrapped around their finger, but it’s going to take a little more than that to compare with, say, the Harry Potter series. (The Twilight books have sold 17 million copies thus far, compared to Harry Potter’s 400 million.) Around the web it seems like there isn’t nearly as much hype for Twilight as you would expect for a major blockbuster, but then again, most of the movie websites are run by guys. And as Sex and the City proved earlier this year, plenty of women go to movies too (it is the 8th highest grossing movie of the year so far). Summit Entertainment is cautiously optimistic, already planning for the sequel, but box office estimates seem to be somewhere in the range of a modest $20 million opening. What do you think, is Twilight going to be a huge hit, or will it disappoint? Can this appeal to a broader audience (ie. guys) or will it only attract hardcore fans? Give us your thoughts here on Open Forum Friday.
Comments (12)
What does “one of” mean? I don’t see it being in the top five of the year nor doing especially great. Many of my female friends went to see Sex and the City (with their mothers!) while none of heard of Twilight. I could see this doing slightly less than HSM3.
Posted by Eric on November 14th, 2008As a movie-going, science fiction/fantasy loving guy, I can honestly say that this Twilight movie appeals to me, and that I think it will appeal to anyone else who has an interest in vampires or fantasy. To me, vampire films always have the potential to be really cool-looking on screen, as well as have a good story line (i.e. Interview with a Vampire).
Posted by Mitsu on November 14th, 2008As a 24-year-old woman, I have no interest in Twilight. But looking at this objectively, I think it is navigating largely untested waters. I can’t think of the last franchise that had such a huge following among teenage girls.
At least High School Musical has a wide age range in their fan base, capturing kids aged five all the way up to late teens and early twenties, plus the younger ones’ parents. Twilight won’t get extra box office dollars from kids’ guardians, but I bet they will sell tickets to girls seeing the movie two, three, four or more times. When I was seventeen, I saw the first Pirates of the Caribbean eight times in theatres. Sad but true.
As long as the movie remains faithful to the book and is even the tiniest bit watchable, they will give the film a long and healthy run at the box office, even if opening weekend produces only modest numbers.
Posted by Ashley on November 14th, 2008As I said in an earlier post: The book is SHIT.
Imagine every squat you’ve ever taken all in one pile on your front lawn. THAT’S HOW SHITTY THIS BOOK IS!!!
I hope this bullshit fails but considering how Beverly Hills Cocksucker owned I wouldn’t be surprised.
Posted by Ryan M. on November 14th, 2008Do any of the vampires hunter other vampires, gouls, and werewolves with a cyber electric sword whilst riding a steampunked horse through the akali badlands of a post-apocalyptic future?
Posted by Ian on November 15th, 2008I’m pretty sure that this film will have a strong opening weekend and when the hard core crowd has seen it it will limp down to a crawl. Unless it’s actually good and reviews or word of mouth will lure people in. But I doubt that.
Posted by swarez on November 15th, 2008These books have not been published in Iceland so I don’t see this doing much business over here at least. Are these books popular outside the US?
Yeah, this will probably have an opening comparable to High School Musical 3 and then see a big drop off. No one that I know is going to see it, and though me and my friends don’t exactly have our fingers on the pulse of American popular culture, even we go to flicks like Harry Potter.
Posted by Joel on November 15th, 2008I think this film will gain big bucks at the box office. No woman I know *hasn’t* seen it – and that covers many age ranges.
The core audience will be likely be in the teens, and likely to see the film multiple times. Also, for the two weekends after it’s release there isn’t anything that targets the same market which will make it likely to sustain the audience for a while.
Posted by Shannon the Movie Moxie on November 17th, 2008I am 28 year old married mother of one college grad, and this is the only series of books I have ever read willingly, Personally I can’t wait to see the movie, and I am very excited to see this love story come to the big screen! There are many people that are planning on seeing this movie that you wouldn’t normally suspect!
Posted by Twilight Fan on November 17th, 2008I think Titanic has demonstrated that we should never underestimate the power of teenage girls and their propensity for seeing a movie at least ten times because they’re in love with the lead.
That said, I kind of dig Robert Pattinson so I’m embarrassed to admit that I’ll probably be seeing this… but I’ve been a fan since he was cast in Harry Potter, so it’s not Twilight itself that is drawing me to this movie.
Posted by Liz on November 19th, 2008I was lucky enough to see the movie in at a premiere screening. It was really good – much better than I expected. Considerable action, good music, the scenery is absolutely fantastic. I expect very good repeat business and crossover from the teenies.
Posted by DogMan on November 20th, 2008Je trouve Twilight génial !! J’espere que les suivent feront de même ! (Tentation,Hésitation,Révelation)
Posted by Maryse on April 6th, 2009Leave a Reply